While there has been some good news for the beleaguered UK housing market over the past several months, one firm predicts that next year will again be a tough one for the market. In its latest UK Residential Housing Forecast, Jones Lang LaSalle says the recent rise will be not be sustainable through 2010. The value of the average home has increased by 8 percent over the past six months, but the company is looking at a fall in prices of 7 percent through 2010.
The company’s housing forecast is predicting average house price growth of close to 0 percent for all of 2009. Over the longer term, though, the company believes that a sustained housing recovery will occur beginning in 2012 and that house growth for the UK will be approximately 8 percent by 2014.
James Thomas, Head of Jones Lang LaSalle’s Residential Development and Investment team, said: “The unforeseen and seemingly irrational pick-up in prices has altered the outlook for UK house prices but it is likely that this recovery will prove temporary. The economic fundamentals that have supported the upturn, most notably the constrained supply of housing for sale, will be eroded as unemployment hits a peak and mortgage lending remains weak.”
Thomas concluded: “While the recent drive in the market is encouraging, it is impossible to ignore the short-term risks posed to the UK residential sector by rising unemployment and poor credit availability. Good buying opportunities will exist for those who have access to equity or credit. Longer-term opportunities will be presented by the shortage of housing required to accommodate the predicted nine million increase in the UK population over the next 25 years. We expect prices to rise on average by
© Housing Market News by The Little House Company
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